In brief
Despite renewed diplomatic efforts, substantial breakthroughs remain unlikely before the election.
Reports indicate that as the Biden administration intensifies its diplomatic efforts in the Middle East ahead of the U.S. presidential election next week, expectations for significant advancements in the ongoing Gaza conflict remain bleak. Envoys from Israel, Egypt, the United States, and Qatar convened in Doha on Monday to discuss potential cease-fire arrangements in Gaza, while American officials aim to mediate a truce between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.However, analysts and officials convey that any developments may be postponed until after the election on November 5. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's stance on a ceasefire appears contingent on the election outcome, with Israel’s leadership hesitant to take definitive action until President Biden's successor is determined. With Hamas’ leadership dismissing temporary ceasefire proposals, hopes for immediate resolution have diminished.Osama Hamdan, a senior Hamas figure, reiterated on Sunday that the group would only consider a permanent cessation of hostilities, rejecting Egypt's offer of a 48-hour pause that would involve the exchange of hostages. Netanyahu, on the other hand, stated he would only entertain a temporary solution to allow military operations to resume, driven by political pressures from his far-right coalition partners who oppose any arrangements that would leave Hamas in power.As speculation rises about whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump will take the helm of the U.S., Netanyahu’s decisions in the ensuing weeks could pivot significantly based on the perceived support from Washington. The upcoming election thus looms large over the potential for peace in the region, leaving many to wonder if any diplomatic breakthroughs are now relegated to the sidelines until further notice.
