In brief
With Donald Trump's possible re-election looming on the horizon, many wonder how his unconventional approach to governance will affect Africa. His preference for transactional politics over diplomacy raises both opportunities and challenges on the continent.
While the previous Obama administration made significant strides in establishing a robust framework for African peace and security through the African Union (AU) and United Nations (UN), Trump's first term saw a significant shift. The focus transitioned from multilateralism to direct, individual deals, as the "Trump Doctrine" emphasized partnerships with specific nations like Israel and the UAE. As Trump likely reinstates this approach, Africa may experience renewed interest from Washington in areas like the Nile disputes involving Egypt and Ethiopia, where the two nations are vying for control over water resources due to Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam project. Yet, Trump's transactional dealings with nations may seem attractive to some African leaders at the expense of liberal democratic principles. This situation is evident in Sudan, where Trump brokered a deal with Israel amidst ongoing strife, but did little to address the underlying conflict. Such political maneuverings plus Trump's disinterest in extensive military involvement could potentially lead to heightened tensions and violence in key regions like Sudan and Ethiopia. Moreover, West Africa is facing a rise of jihadist movements and coup plots, with leaders potentially seeking to align with either the US or Russia depending on Trump's new partnerships. All of this creates an unpredictable political environment for Africa as the continent grapples with the implications of Trump's return to power and the likely prioritization of short-term gains over long-term stability.As the African Union approaches its leadership transition in early 2025, the next chairperson will have to navigate these challenges. The current political climate and Trump’s transactional politics might make it harder for leaders committed to establishing norm-based multilateral cooperation in the region to thrive. As the world watches, both African leaders and citizens will have to prepare and respond to the potential shifts in US foreign policy that could redefine the continent's futures amidst complex geopolitical dynamics.
